What is this?

This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing GOBBluth89’s BoardGameGeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to add to their collection.

By analyzing a user’s collection and training a predictive model, I am able to answer questions such as:

  • What designers/mechanics/genres does a user tend to like or dislike?

  • What older games might they be interested in adding to their collection?

  • What new and upcoming games should they check out?

1 Collection

How many games has GOBBluth89 owned/rated/played?

1.1 Types of Games

What types of game does GOBBluth89 own? I can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.

1.2 Games in Collection

What games does GOBBluth89 currently have in their collection? The following table can be used to examine games the user owns, along with some helpful information for selecting the right game for a game night!

Use the filters above the table to sort/filter based on information about the game, such as year published, recommended player counts, or playing time.

2 Modeling

I’ll now the examine predictive models trained on the user’s collection.

For an individual user, I train a predictive model on their collection in order to predict whether a user owns a game. The outcome, in this case, is binary: does the user have a game listed in their collection or not? This is the setting for training a classification model, where the model aims to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features.

How does a model learn what a user is likely to own? The training process is a matter of examining historical games and finding patterns that exist between game features (designers, mechanics, playing time, etc) and games in the user’s collection.

Note: I train models to predict whether a user owns a game based only on information that could be observed about the game at its release: playing time, player count, mechanics, categories, genres, and selected designers, artists, and publishers. I do not make use of BGG community information, such as its average rating or number of user ratings (though I do use a game’s estimated complexity as a feature). This is to ensure the model can predict newly released games and is not dependent on the BGG community to rate them.

2.1 What Predicts a User’s Collection?

A predictive model gives us more than just predictions. We can also ask, what did the model learn from the data? What predicts the outcome? In the case of predicting a boardgame collection, what did the model find to be predictive of games a user owns?

To answer this, I can examine the coefficients from a model logistic regression with ridge regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.

This model examines a wide variety of features of games (506 features, to be exact) and estimates their effect on whether a user owns a game. These estimates are then shrunken towards zero based on a tuning parameter (lambda), where the appropriate value is estimated from the data.

The following visualization shows the path of each feature as it enters the model, with highly influential features tending to enter the model early with large positive or negative effects.

2.2 Partial Effects

This type of model enables me to I can examine the effects of specific features on a user’s collection. For instance, what is a user’s favorite designer? Least favorite mechanic? The following plots indicate specific effects for different kinds of features.

2.3 Feature Importance

In addition to training a logistic regression, I trained another type of model using boosted trees (LightGBM), a flexible nonparametric method that is well suited for prediction.

Which features were most used by this model? Features that are important in predicting a user’s collection will appear towards the top of cover, frequency, and/or gain.

3 Assessment

How well did the model do in predicting the user’s collection?

This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s). If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.

3.1 Separation

An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot.

I plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).

I can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (roc_auc). A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.

type wflow_id .metric mean std_err n
resamples glmnet roc_auc 0.917 0.009 5
resamples lightgbm roc_auc 0.851 0.022 5

3.2 Top Games in Training

Another way of looking at what the model learned is to see its predictions on the training set. The models are trained on games published before 2021; of these games, what did the model like for the user?

Top (Older) Games for GOBBluth89
Rankings based on predictive model trained on user's collection using games released through 2021
rank image game description Pr(Own) Own
1 Arkham Horror: The Card Game (Revised Edition) (2021) The boundaries between worlds have drawn perilously thin. Dark forces work in the shadows and call upon unspeakable horrors, strange happenings are discovered all throughout the city of Arkham, Massachusetts, and behind it all an Ancient One manipulates everything from beyond the veil. It is time to revisit that which started it all… With a revamped system of organization and a number of quali... 0.999 no
2 Android: Netrunner (2012) Welcome to New Angeles, home of the Beanstalk. From our branch offices in this monument of human achievement, NBN proudly broadcasts all your favorite media programming. We offer fully comprehensive streaming in music and threedee, news and sitcoms, classic movies and sensies. We cover it all. Ours is a brave new age, and as humanity hurtles into space and the future with an astonishing series ... 0.992 yes
3 Concordia Venus (2018) Concordia Venus is a standalone reimplementation of Concordia with some added features. Concordia Venus is a peaceful strategy game of economic development in Roman times for 2-6 players aged 13 and up. Instead of looking to the luck of dice or cards, players must rely on their strategic abilities. Be sure to watch your rivals to determine which goals they are pursuing and where you can outpac... 0.988 no
4 Great Western Trail (Second Edition) (2021) America in the 19th century: You are a rancher and repeatedly herd your cattle from Texas to Kansas City, where you send them off by train. This earns you money and victory points. Needless to say, each time you arrive in Kansas City, you want to have your most valuable cattle in tow. However, the "Great Western Trail" not only requires that you keep your herd in good shape, but also that you w... 0.982 no
5 Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two (2021) In battle, there are no equals. Unmatched is a highly asymmetrical miniature fighting game for two or four players. Each hero is represented by a unique deck designed to evoke their style and legend. Tactical movement and no-luck combat resolution create a unique play experience that rewards expertise, but just when you've mastered one set, new heroes arrive to provide all new match-ups. Batt... 0.981 yes
6 Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume One (2019) In battle, there are no equals. Unmatched is a highly asymmetrical miniature fighting game for two or four players. Each hero is represented by a unique deck designed to evoke their style and legend. Tactical movement and no-luck combat resolution create a unique play experience that rewards expertise, but just when you've mastered one set, new heroes arrive to provide all new match-ups. Batt... 0.975 yes
7 Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf (2020) In battle, there are no equals. ONCE UPON A TIME, Little Red Riding Hood took her basket of nasty tricks and faced off against the legendary Beowulf in this exciting Unmatched set. "What big eyes you have, Wulfie!" "That’s called 'rage', kid!" Little Red features a clever card-combo mechanism. Matching icons on the cards she plays to the one in her "basket" (discard pile), triggers potent e... 0.958 yes
8 Unmatched: Robin Hood vs. Bigfoot (2019) In battle, there are no equals. Unmatched is a highly asymmetrical miniature fighting game for two or four players. (Note that this set is solely for two players, but it can be combined with other sets, which all serve up to four players.) Each hero is represented by a unique deck designed to evoke their style and legend. Tactical movement and no-luck combat resolution create a unique play exp... 0.945 yes
9 Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition (2018) Cosmic Encounter 42nd Anniversary Edition welcomes new players to the game of infinite possibilities with a freshly revised rulebook and a beautifully illustrated Quick-start Guide that captures the nostalgia of the original game and makes it easy for anyone to learn. The Quick-start Guide’s comic book style throws readers back to the 1970s, providing vital insight into the core rules of the ga... 0.935 no
10 Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game (2020) The Mad Titan Thanos seeks the Infinity Stones to bend the universe to his indomitable will, but courageous heroes are assembling to stand in his path to ultimate power. Based on the beloved card game and set in the Marvel Universe, Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game features the elegant mechanics of the original, re-imagined in a one-vs-many twist for thrilling team play. While one player t... 0.929 no


I’ll plot the top 10 games most likely to be owned by the user in the last 10 years of the training set.

Games highlighted in blue are currently in the user’s collection; games highlighted in light blue are games that the user previously owned.

Top Games by Year for GOBBluth89
Rankings based on predictive model trained on user's collection using games released through 2021
Rank 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1 A Game of Thrones: The Board Game (Second Edition) Android: Netrunner Caverna: The Cave Farmers Spyfall Star Wars: Armada Sushi Go Party! Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition Concordia Venus Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume One Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf Arkham Horror: The Card Game (Revised Edition)
2 Rune Age Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) Eldritch Horror Star Wars: Imperial Assault Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game – The Force Awakens Core Set Star Wars: Rebellion Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition Unmatched: Robin Hood vs. Bigfoot Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game Great Western Trail (Second Edition)
3 Tragedy Looper Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) Impulse Istanbul A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) Arkham Horror: The Card Game Fallout Newton Aftermath Unmatched: Cobble & Fog Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two
4 Deadwood Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game Animals Frightening Night! Deception: Murder in Hong Kong The King Is Dead Agricola (Revised Edition) Cat Lady Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) Era: Medieval Age Cosmic Encounter Duel Cascadia
5 Black Gold Android: Infiltration Rococo Blue Moon Legends Runebound (Third Edition) New Angeles Bärenpark KeyForge: Call of the Archons Blitzkrieg!: World War Two in 20 Minutes Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors For the King (and Me)
6 Elder Sign Rex: Final Days of an Empire Space Cadets: Dice Duel Star Wars: Empire vs. Rebellion Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) Love Letter: Premium Edition A Game of Thrones: Catan – Brotherhood of the Watch Shadows: Amsterdam Star Wars: Outer Rim Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer For Science!
7 Tinco Smash Up Race! Formula 90 Xia: Legends of a Drift System Forbidden Stars Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne Gloomhaven Everdell Unmatched Game System Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion Ankh: Gods of Egypt
8 A Few Acres of Snow Love Letter World of Tanks: Rush Diamonds Sylvion Dead of Winter: The Long Night Semper Fidelis: Bitwa o Lwów 1918-1919 Mage Knight: Ultimate Edition Marvel Champions: The Card Game The March of Progress Unfathomable
9 Mage Knight Board Game Rumble in the Dungeon Lewis & Clark: The Expedition Warhammer 40,000: Conquest XCOM: The Board Game Beyond Baker Street Heaven & Ale Ghostbusters: The Card Game Silver & Gold The Pet Cemetery Harsh Shadows
10 Takenoko Abaddon Blood Bound DungeonQuest: Revised Edition Raptor Star Wars: Destiny Codenames: Disney – Family Edition Railroad Ink: Blazing Red Edition The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine Calico Newton & Great Discoveries


The following table shows the model’s predictions for games in the training set.

3.3 Calibration

What do the model’s predicted probabilties mean? Or, put another way, how well calibrated are the model’s predictions?

If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often each model expects to observe the outcome.

A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.

3.4 Validation

I first assessed the models based on their performance via resampling on the training set.

But how well does my modeling approach do in predicting new games? To test this, I assessed the performance of the model (which was trained on games published through 2021) on games published in 2022-2023.

How well did the model do? The following table shows the model’s predictions for games in the validation set.

As before, I can then assess the performance of the model.

type wflow_id .metric .estimate
valid glmnet mn_log_loss 0.008
valid lightgbm mn_log_loss 0.005
valid glmnet roc_auc 0.915
valid lightgbm roc_auc 0.973

4 Predictions

What new and upcoming games does the model predict for GOBBluth89?

The following table displays the top 15 games published after 2021 with the highest probability of entering the user’s collection.

Top 15 (Newer) Games for GOBBluth89
Rankings based on predictive model trained on user's collection using games released through 2021
rank image game description Pr(Own) Own
1 Unmatched: Jurassic Park – Dr. Sattler vs. T. Rex (2022) In battle, there are no equals. "Dinosaurs eat man… Woman inherits the earth." The greatest predator the world has ever known is closing in on the tenacious Dr. Sattler. Who has the slightest idea what to expect? In Unmatched: Jurassic Park – Dr. Sattler vs. T. Rex, the massive T rex unleashes fearsome attacks and seems unstoppable while Dr. Sattler makes full use of her surroundings and the a... 0.944 yes
2 The Witcher: Old World (2023) In The Witcher: Old World, you become a witcher — a professional monster slayer — and immerse yourself in the legendary universe of The Witcher franchise. Set years before the saga of Geralt of Rivia, The Witcher: Old World explores a time when monsters roamed the Continent in greater numbers, creating a constant peril that required the attention of expertly trained monster slayers, known as w... 0.874 no
3 Desamparados: Stalingrado (2022) ("Forsaken: Stalingrad" by its name in Spanish) narrates the events around both German and Soviet military platoons, after being abandoned to their fate in the middle of the Russian winter. With few resources and crippling cold, willpower is their best weapon. Players take a Side based on the army they want to play with, choose a Squad Deck, set up their Side Boards, Item Cards, their respecti... 0.711 no
4 Unmatched: Houdini vs. The Genie (2022) Unmatched is a highly asymmetrical miniature fighting game for two or four players. Each hero is represented by a unique deck designed to evoke their style and legend. Tactical movement and no-luck combat resolution create a unique play experience that rewards expertise, but just when you've mastered one set, new heroes arrive to provide all new match-ups. Unmatched: Houdini vs. The Genie adds ... 0.702 no
5 The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set (2022) Sometimes, in order to truly appreciate a tale, one must first go back to its beginning. Grand adventures and strong fellowships are important and wonderful, but the first step of any journey is just as important as the last. With that in mind, it’s time to return to the beginning of one of the most epic adventures of all… With increased contents and some quality-of-life improvements, this new... 0.697 no
6 Undaunted: Battle of Britain (2023) The RAF faces the Luftwaffe in this two-player deck-building game of aerial WWII combat. Summer, 1940. The German war machine has rolled through the continent in less than a year, crushing all before it. Britain is all that stands in the way of German victory in Europe. Command the pilots of the battle-tested Luftwaffe who are looking to extinguish all resistance and pave the way to invasion, ... 0.696 no
7 Unmatched: Brains and Brawn (2023) Unmatched: Brains and Brawn, the fifth and final Unmatched Marvel set, features some of Marvel's hottest heroes: Spider-Man, Dr. Strange, and She-Hulk. Spidey swings around the battlefield, using his spider-sense to keep him safe. Dr. Strange has, well, the best card names in the game: Behold the Seven Suns of Cinnibus! And She-Hulk won't think twice about throwing the book — or whatever heavy ... 0.681 no
8 Gloomhaven: Second Edition (2024) Gloomhaven: Second Edition is a revised and elevated version of the award-winning core game of Gloomhaven. This is the culmination of everything Isaac Childres and the growing Cephalofair Games team have learned since the initial release of Gloomhaven, including feedback from the community, playtesters, co-designers, and developers. The world, story, and challenging gameplay are all still the ... 0.619 no
9 Undaunted: Stalingrad (2022) Stalingrad, 1942. Before you awaits a grueling conflict in this cornerstone battleground. As the bullets and bombs tear the city asunder, only through wits and valor can you seize the cornerstone of the entire Eastern Front and change the course of history. A heavy burden rests on your shoulders. Every casualty suffered in battle will weaken your forces for the entire campaign. Every bomb blas... 0.571 no
10 Unmatched: Redemption Row (2022) Unmatched is a highly asymmetrical miniature fighting game for two or four players. Each hero is represented by a unique deck designed to evoke their style and legend. Tactical movement and no-luck combat resolution create a unique play experience that rewards expertise, but just when you've mastered one set, new heroes arrive to provide all new match-ups. Unmatched: Redemption Row features th... 0.555 no
11 Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen (2022) Unmatched is a highly asymmetrical miniature fighting game for two or four players. Each hero is represented by a unique deck designed to evoke their style and legend. Tactical movement and no-luck combat resolution create a unique play experience that rewards expertise, but just when you've mastered one set, new heroes arrive to provide all new match-ups. Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen features th... 0.555 no
12 Unmatched: Teen Spirit (2023) Unmatched is a highly asymmetrical miniature fighting game for two or four players. Each hero is represented by a unique deck designed to evoke their style and legend. Tactical movement and no-luck combat resolution create a unique play experience that rewards expertise, but just when you've mastered one set, new heroes arrive to provide all new match-ups. Unmatched: Teen Spirit features four ... 0.555 no
13 Unmatched: For King and Country (2023) Unmatched is a highly asymmetrical miniature fighting game for two or four players. Each hero is represented by a unique deck designed to evoke their style and legend. Tactical movement and no-luck combat resolution create a unique play experience that rewards expertise, but just when you've mastered one set, new heroes arrive to provide all new match-ups. Unmatched: For King and Country featu... 0.555 no
14 Distilled (2023) Distilled is a highly thematic strategy card game about crafting spirits in a distillery, with resource management and push-your-luck elements. In the game, you have inherited a distillery and are hoping to someday achieve the title of master distiller through purchasing goods, building up your distillery, and creating the world's most renowned spirits. Use cards to purchase new ingredients an... 0.451 no
15 Star Wars: The Deckbuilding Game (2023) The Rebel Alliance fights valiantly against the tyranny of the Galactic Empire. Each new victory brings the Rebels hope, and each heroic sacrifice strengthens their resolve. Still, the Empire's resources are vast, and the firepower of its Empire Navy is unmatched. With neither side willing to accept defeat, their war rages across the galaxy... In Star Wars: The Deckbuilding Game, a head-to-hea... 0.406 no

4.1 Explaining Individual Predictions

Why did the model predict these games?

4.2 Upcoming Games

Finally, I can examine predictions for all newer and upcoming games.